Paul Collier’s The Bottom Billion identifies four key traps that keep poor nations in perpetual poverty: conflict, natural resources, being landlocked with bad neighbors, and bad governance. Over 15 years since the book’s release, Nigeria—Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation—remains a prime case study of these traps.
Here’s how Nigeria fits into Collier’s framework today and whether it is escaping—or sinking deeper into—these poverty traps.
1. The Natural Resource Trap (Nigeria’s Oil Curse)
Collier’s Argument:
Countries dependent on a single resource (like oil) often suffer from corruption, economic instability, and neglect of other sectors.
Nigeria in 2025:
- Still Oil-Dependent: Oil accounts for 90% of export earnings and 50% of government revenue, despite decades of talk about diversification.
- Dutch Disease in Action: The Naira’s value fluctuates wildly with oil prices, and manufacturing remains weak (just 8.5% of GDP).
- Elite Capture & Corruption: Billions in oil revenues vanish yearly (e.g., the NNPC missing $20 billion scandal under Buhari). Fuel subsidy fraud remains rampant.
Is Nigeria Escaping This Trap?
❌ No. The 2023 petrol subsidy removal was a bold move, but savings are not yet translating into visible development. The Dangote Refinery (private-sector-led) offers hope, but corruption and policy inconsistency persist.
2. The Conflict Trap (Boko Haram, Banditry, Separatist Agitations)
Collier’s Argument:
Civil wars and violence destroy economies, discourage investment, and create cycles of instability.
Nigeria in 2025:
- Ongoing Insurgencies: Boko Haram (weakened but not dead), bandit warlords in the Northwest, IPOB separatist tensions in the Southeast.
- Mass Displacement: Over 3 million Nigerians are internally displaced (UNHCR 2024).
- Economic Cost: Insecurity has shut down farms, raising food prices (inflation hit 33% in March 2025).
Is Nigeria Escaping This Trap?
Partial Progress. The military has degraded Boko Haram, but banditry is worsening. Without jobs for angry youths, conflict will persist.
3. Bad Governance in a Large (Not Small) Country
Collier’s Argument:
Poor leadership, weak institutions, and corruption stifle growth.
Nigeria in 2025:
- Institutional Decay:
- Judiciary: Courts often side with the highest bidder (e.g., controversial election rulings).
- Police & Army: Extortion and human rights abuses are rampant.
- Policy Flip-Flops:
- FX Unification (2023): Good idea, but poor execution led to Naira crashing to ₦1,500/$.
- Subsidy Removal: Necessary but caused massive inflation without adequate palliatives.
Is Nigeria Escaping This Trap?
❌ No. Tinubu’s reforms are bold but face sabotage by corrupt bureaucrats. Nigeria ranks 140/180 in Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Index.
4. Landlocked with Bad Neighbors? (No, But Regional Instability Matters)
Nigeria isn’t landlocked, but Collier’s “bad neighbors” concept still applies:
- Sahel Instability: Niger, Chad, and Mali’s coups and jihadist wars spill over into Northern Nigeria.
- ECOWAS in Crisis: Sanctions on Niger failed, weakening Nigeria’s regional influence.
Impact:
- Refugee influx strains resources.
- Cross-border crime (arms smuggling, kidnappings) worsens insecurity.
Does Nigeria Fit The Bottom Billion in 2025?
Yes, but with a caveat:
- Nigeria is not among the very poorest (GDP per capita ~$2,400), but inequality is extreme—over 129 million live in extreme poverty.
- Unlike Liberia or Malawi, Nigeria has resources and a large economy, but misgovernance keeps it in a “middle-income trap.”
What Would Collier Recommend for Nigeria Today?
- Break the Oil Curse:
- Publish oil contracts publicly (like Ghana’s Petroleum Register).
- Invest oil revenues into infrastructure & education, not political patronage.
- Fix Security:
- Community policing + jobs for youths to undercut recruitment by bandits.
- Regional cooperation (not just military force) to stabilize the Sahel.
- Governance Reforms:
- Strengthen anti-corruption agencies (EFCC needs real independence).
- Judicial reforms to restore trust in courts.
- Diversify the Economy:
- Tax incentives for tech & manufacturing (Lagos’s startup scene shows promise).
- Stable FX policies to attract foreign investment.
Conclusion: Is Nigeria Stuck or Progressing?
Nigeria is not yet one of Collier’s “bottom billion” in GDP terms, but poor governance, conflict, and oil dependence keep it in a low-growth trap. There is acute poverty in Nigeria. Tinubu’s reforms (subsidy removal, tax changes) are necessary but will fail without institutional reforms.
Final Verdict:
- If Nigeria fixes governance, it could be the next Indonesia (a former oil state that diversified successfully).
- If corruption persists, it risks becoming the next Venezuela—rich in resources but collapsing from within.
